According to James Gosling interview on Hadoop summit Oracle will definitely concentrate on server side platform enhancements to bring more safety and efficiency to J2EE world. Sounds good. http://www.osp.ru/news/articles/2010/27/13002964/
At the same time focus of mobile vendors is moving to developing their application platforms by their own. In this area the future of Java is not clear.
I see the reasons for that since there is no a five star solution that will satisfy everyone. Still it could be not efficient and will definitely split up technologies.
Nevertheless sooner or later technologists will come up with an idea of having a common runtime. The world moves spiral.